Right after the entire world reached the conclusion that NATO's 'Spring Offensive', using Ukrainian soldiers, was an abysmal failure, your 'trusted mainstream analysts' rushed to the camera's and their 'embedded' publications to tell the people 'back home' that we had a 'frozen conflict' on our hands. Winter was approaching, and only after the snow was gone, and the muddy roads of early spring would dry out and allow movement of tanks and artillery, there might be an increase of activity. Though Ukraine wouldn't be ready for a new offensive in 2024, so they would use the first few months of the year to fortify their defensive positions to preclude a successful Russian attack during the late Spring and Summer.
They were wrong. Every assessment, every preview, every analysis NATO has produced from the very beginning in February 2022 has been wrong. Out of the Ballpark wrong. One own-goal after the other. The fall of Avdeevka wasn't some insignificant miscalculation, nor was the fall of Marinka which went before it. Or the horrors of the Krynky 'beachhead', pissing away Ukrainian lives by the hundreds for nothing.
From what I'm seeing and hearing the Russians not only took Avdeevka and Marinka, but as the thaw sets in, creating unpredictable conditions for all parties, they are still on the move, after their successful war of attrition. No 'Big Arrow', 'Blitzkrieg' type of offensive, but fast enough to deny Ukraine setting up defensive positions like the 'Surovikin'-line the Russians themselves built after they withdrew from Kharkov and the westbank of the Djnepr around Kherson. We keep hearing those stories of badly motivated, poorly led Russian soldiers, losing equipment faster than they can replace it, even as the Russians themselves claim they took Avdeevka due to cunning, smart manoeuvring, excellently executed plans, and with minimal losses. Actually, 'between the lines' some western analysts admit that the massive use of heavy glide-bombs, capable of blasting bunkers meant to withstand an attack with nuclear weapons, were important in destroying the well prepared fortifications in the city, as before 2022 it was the hub from which NATO's proxies fired on Donetsk for eight years straight to keep the population on its toes, and planned to launch their own offensive, according to the Russians.
It is no longer a secret that NATO is running on empty, frantically searching for ways to build the factories they need to produce the weapons required for this type of war. The lady who is still running the department of war in the Netherlands, sending everything not bolted down to Ukraine, came out with an urgent call for wealthy Dutch pension-funds to shift their money from 'Everything Green' to 'Everything Military Industrial Complex', after years of iron-clad policies urging them to defund the 'weapons industry' and anything 'Fossil'. Mind you, the big gains for investors are already behind us, so this call is merely meant to plunder the savings of the Dutch in order to pay NATO's bills, and leave them owning nothing.
According to the Russians there were lots of foreigners in Avdeevka, mercenaries, or 'mercenaries' in case NATO is 'whitewashing' its direct involvement, as an increasing number of commentators are suggesting. Clearly they can't send entire battalions, but perhaps there are volunteers, which sign a special contract which places them outside the military for the duration of their appointment, with an option to return to their original rank and position if they survive, while retaining all the perks for themselves, with added bonuses, and care for their family if they won't make it back, as if they were on a lawful mission? Don't tell me NATO-countries wouldn't because it is against the law. I read an article which said that a number of 'legal experts' signed a document which says it is okay if the NATO-countries steal Russian the money they 'froze', and hand it to Ukraine. To do what? Grease the skids for Zelensky and selected clients? Obviously the fifty billion a Dutch 'arbitrary' court assigned to the shareholders of nationalised Yukos won't be forthcoming from the Russian side, under the circumstances, so the first tranche will go to Khodorkovsky and his bunch, who started with nothing to become billionaires with the help of western banks in the days Anders Aslund and his ilk were still busy running the Russian economy into the ground. But even without that money stolen from them Russia seems to be doing great, economically. Europe, on the other hand, is 'keeping up appearances', mostly.
Like I wrote previously, Ukraine still has its Abrams, with only one spotted in Avdeevka, fleeing the scene in a hurry, and most of its British tanks, while the F-16's are being readied for delivery, with Stoltenberg saying those fighter-bombers may strike targets inside Russia as they see fit, while Germany and other nations are either contemplating, or already busy sending long-range missiles, and NATO aircraft in support of the war effort over the Black Sea, in international waters. So the jig is not up yet, and who knows what kind of surprises NATO has in store for us, as Dutch prime-minister Rutte is said to be Stoltenberg's replacement soon, because waiting for him to finish 'Project Ukraine', as intended before, is likely to see him rule from his grave at this pace. There is no new government in the Netherlands yet, but with 'Brussels' and 'Davos' as caretakers of what used to be a sovereign country there won't be any changes anyway.
Medvedev, still pretty important in Russia, in command of military production, transformed into a hawk, as he published an article on 'X' explaining that if NATO would feel at liberty to take the recently added territory, and attack Crimea in such a way that it was considered to be an existential threat to Moscow, the Russians wouldn't hesitate to nuke Washington, London, Paris, Berlin, Warsaw and Kiev. Obviously he wasn't exposing any military secrets, because this deterrent capability has been around for ages. Nor will those cities be the prime targets if shit comes to shove. But if the Brits thought to impress the Russians with a launch of an ICBM from one of their remaining subs, that did not exactly go according to plan. After some hair raising acrobatics right after it emerged from the water, it plunged back into the sea, and I guess the crew on board the sub, which reportedly included the minister of war for the occasion, shit their pants. Obviously the missile wasn't armed, but still.
Are we really going to do this? What is this what I'm looking at? One former German General after the other is emerging on 'social media' to warn us because we are making a grave mistake, but politicians who dodged the draft on both sides of the Atlantic, and women called to serve in an official position related to the war effort, are exposing themselves as the fiercest war-mongers. Back in the late sixties and early seventies women demanded an end to the rule of all those 'testosterone-driven Alpha-Males' wrecking the world with their endless wars. I was a skeptic myself, even though I've always been in favour of equal rights for women and men. But I'd been the victim of more than one totally irrational 'Hormone Imbalance' attack from women I thought were okay, and great fun to be with. Nothing happened, because I kept my cool, and walked away, but I learned that this myth of peace-loving, caring women as a general rule was exactly that: A myth. The world is full of horrible men, and women, but adding unpredictability doesn't make the world a safer place. And I'm not blaming women, don't get me wrong! I read that an 'official study' had shown that milk from the breasts of 'Trans-men' wearing serious beards, and sporting big breasts like Gina Lollobrigida, was indistinguishable from the original trademark mother-milk, and with Rutte being single, devoted to destroying everything he comes across from my perspective, but with a generous smile, I'm keeping my powder dry when the subject of women versus men, or sociopaths is popping up.
This morning, as I contemplated what I might add to the debate which has not already been brought up, this thought crossed my mind that, perhaps they are doing it all on purpose. That they issue one upbeat vision about the next stage of the war after the other, although they know it is total BS, so as to recreate the '1984' paradigm where continents had been at war 'forever', with rumours floating about what started it, but nobody knowing for certain, since the 'Ministry of Truth' had 'washed' everything to generate a 'plausible' world which was actually fiction. No doubt this thought of mine was the reflection of a 'Tik-Tok' clip one of my sons sent me about a new 'AI'-possibility, of creating a movie from offering 'AI' nothing but a script. I don't want to be in '1984'. I don't want to know what 'AI' might come up with if we allowed it to read 'Mein Kampf', throwing in the 'Ghost of Kiev', Azov and Aidar associated stormtroopers, and some spiced up stories about battlefield heroics. I want some sane person to take us out of this 'Cuckoo's Nest'. And on 'X' I read that 72% of the Ukrainians want that too, with just a little over 30% having this desire to fight till the death. Go for it, 72%!